In 2021, the legal cannabis market had an estimated worth of $26.5 billion and is expected to hit annual sales of upwards of $32 billion for 2022. This growth is not only fueled by strong consumer demand caused by changing attitudes, the influx of new legal state markets are also expected to spur the growth further. With an estimated CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 11% between the years 2020-2030, the legal sales are projected to be well beyond $57 billion by the end of this period. This is according the just released 2022 New Frontier Data Report. Download a free copy.
In states that already have legal status for cannabis products, annual medical cannabis sales are expected to have a 7% CAGR in the period through 2030, growing from $8.5 billion in 2020 to $16.7 billion by 2025. In this same period, the projection for adult-use sales is an estimated 13% CAGR, growing from $11.7 billion – $40.9 billion.
Expected strong growth in the consumer demand ensures sustained positive market growth through all the way through to 2030. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand in value-added products such as concentrates, vapes, topicals, and edibles which tend to buoy prices. These products tend to hold their premium pricing better than flower. These value-added products have steadily commanded a larger market share with flower accounting for less sales progressively.
When sales are based on product type, the cannabis oil segment accounts for the largest share in revenue. Its rich medical properties mean that it garners an ever increasing patient population which cuts across age and other demographics.
When based on ailments, the chronic pain segment holds the largest revenue share due to the increase in awareness as well the rise in social acceptance accorded to the medical use of cannabis. The fastest growth segment in medical cannabis is the mental disorder segment due to a high percentage of the population suffering from anxiety and stress.
North America still accounts for a large revenue share owing to its early legalization of both medical and adult-use cannabis but other states are fast catching on.
Additionally, cannabis product companies as well as retailers have had to rapidly evolve to meet the “mainstream” demand. Consumption is no longer limited to joints, and bongs or pipes. As the market grows, the choices have increased to include infused products, concentrates, oils, and even topicals. Other user friendly methods for consuming cannabis products especially for medical use are gummies, beverages, candies, and even chocolate. Product innovation as well as improved packaging are also expected to play a major role in the edible segment of cannabis products and have an effect on the overall sales.
Other convergent forces which fuel overall growth in the legal cannabis industry are:
- New states gaining legalization for the sale of both medical and adult use cannabis. This is expected to significantly grow sales in these states which should show in about 2 years.
- Sustained growth in demand in the legalized sales as consumers transition from the illegal and unregulated one to the legal one.
- Growth in knowledge of the expansive therapeutic value of cannabis leading to a decrease in stigmatization as well as diversification of the product landscape for increased medical as well as wellness usage.
Because the growth explosion of cannabis is almost certain, experts have been speculating about how the industry as a whole will end up looking like. Will it be dominated by large corporations flood the cannabis market with cheap generic products? A good number speculate that this may not be the case as consumers are largely interested in both locally-produced and locally-made artisanal products. Also, especially for adult-use, the nuances of the different strains are what gives them their special uniqueness and keep consumers literally coming back for more.
Another huge factor that is expected to spur and shape the growth of the legal marijuana market is technology. The weed delivery company, Eaze, has reportedly raised $37 million and now has an estimated value of $300 million. It made an announcement recently that it’s in the process of creating a platform which will be able to ship CBD products efficiently to 41 states. Dutchie, another on-delivery cannabis delivery service also raised $3 million back in 2018 from venture capital firms belonging to rapper Snoop Dogg as well as basketball player Kevin Durant and others.
This ease in both ordering and receiving both medical and adult-use cannabis products play a major role in the growth in sales and sustaining of the markets.
According to New Frontier Data analysis by 2025, “42 percent of total annual US cannabis demand will be met by legal purchases in regulated marketplaces.” Of these, 62 percent is estimated to be adult-use purchases with the remaining 38 percent being made in medical cannabis sales.