Federal Cannabis Trafficking Cases Fall to New Record Low

Federal marijuana trafficking cases reached another record low in fiscal year 2025, falling to 383 — a number that would have seemed implausibly small a decade ago, when federal courts were processing roughly ten times as many. The data, drawn from the U.S. Sentencing Commission’s Quick Facts report on marijuana trafficking published in May 2026, captures a federal enforcement posture that has been pulling back from cannabis for years, even as the drug remains federally controlled.

The 383 cases represent a decline from 471 reported in fiscal year 2024 and a 62 percent drop from fiscal year 2021. Across all federal drug trafficking cases in fiscal year 2025, marijuana now accounts for just 2 percent of the caseload, down from 2.6 percent the prior year.

A Long Retreat, Measured in Cases

The scale of the shift becomes clearer in historical context. According to historical Commission data, federal courts processed approximately 5,000 marijuana trafficking cases in 2013. By 2015, that number had fallen to around 3,500. The downward trajectory since then has been consistent, accelerating as state legalization programs expanded. More than two dozen states and the District of Columbia have enacted adult-use cannabis laws, and more than three dozen states now operate medical programs.

The Commission’s 2025 Sourcebook of Federal Sentencing Statistics, published in April 2026, shows that cannabis now accounts for approximately 2.4 percent of all federal drug cases — manufacture, sale, and transportation combined. The Commission’s interactive data tool shows the number of people sentenced in federal court for marijuana trafficking or possession has fallen from 5,554 in 2015 to roughly 400 last year.

Federal prosecutors have shifted their drug enforcement resources toward methamphetamine and fentanyl, which together now dominate the drug trafficking docket. Meth alone accounts for nearly half of all federal drug trafficking cases. Fentanyl took over as the second-most-common target in fiscal year 2024, a position it held in 2025. By comparison, heroin trafficking — itself sharply down as fentanyl has displaced it — produced 356 federal cases last year, slightly fewer than marijuana.

Fewer Cases, Longer Sentences

One counterintuitive finding in the Commission data: even as the number of marijuana prosecutions has fallen, average sentences for those convicted have risen. The average sentence for federal marijuana trafficking reached 44 months in fiscal year 2025, up from 30 months in fiscal year 2021 — a steady climb that reflects who is actually making it through the prosecutorial filter.

The data bears that out. The median drug quantity triggering prosecution — between 100 and 400 grams — suggests prosecutors are largely bypassing smaller cases. Those who do face charges often have compounding factors: 36 percent saw their sentences increased for possessing a weapon, and 11 percent received an enhancement for a leadership role in the offense.

Eighty-five percent of those convicted were sentenced to prison. The geographic concentration is notable: the top two districts for marijuana trafficking cases were the Western District of Texas, which handled 43 cases, and the Southern (SOMN ) District of Texas, with 38. The Eastern (EML ) District of Virginia came third. The Texas concentration reflects both proximity to the southern border and active enforcement in a state where cannabis remains fully illegal.

The racial breakdown of who ends up in federal court on marijuana trafficking charges warrants attention. In fiscal year 2025, 42 percent of those convicted were Black, 30 percent were Hispanic, 15 percent were White, and 12 percent fell into other racial categories — a distribution that differs substantially from the overall drug trafficking caseload, where Hispanic defendants are the largest group.

What Federal Policy Changes Mean for the Trajectory

The declining prosecution numbers are being watched against the backdrop of two overlapping federal actions that could push the trend further.

In April 2026, the Justice Department moved FDA-approved marijuana products and state-licensed medical cannabis from Schedule I — the most restrictive category under federal drug law — to Schedule III, covering medically authorized cannabis. A broader DEA administrative hearing, set to begin June 29, 2026, will address whether the reclassification extends to marijuana more broadly. Three Republican state attorneys general have filed suit to block the action, adding legal uncertainty to an already complex regulatory timeline.

Separately, the Commission updated its sentencing guidelines in late 2023, directing federal judges to treat prior marijuana possession convictions more leniently when calculating criminal history in unrelated cases. The change addressed a long-standing concern: that a cannabis record accumulated under a state’s old prohibition laws could inflate sentencing exposure in federal proceedings years later, particularly as more states reformed their own laws.

A coalition of Democratic lawmakers has pushed the Trump administration to commute the sentences of the estimated 3,000 people still federally incarcerated for marijuana trafficking, arguing that rescheduling the drug makes it illogical to keep those convictions standing. That request has not been answered.

Federal marijuana enforcement has narrowed to a fraction of what it was — concentrated in border-adjacent districts, focused on higher-quantity cases, and declining as a priority. The June 2026 DEA hearing will be the next significant test of whether the partial rescheduling accelerates that decline or whether legal challenges freeze the process in place.