The growth of the cannabis market in recent years has been nothing if not astronomical. Every New Year brings with it pressure on the federal Government to have more uniform state regulations nationwide. While the consumption of cannabis in years past was shrouded in secrecy, it is now fast becoming widely accepted as a form of recreation and an alternative to traditional medicine.
According to a recent report published by New Frontier Data on Industry Projections, there is a strong likelihood that a further 9 states will legalize adult-use cannabis, and another 9 states medical cannabis use by before the year 2030. What does that mean for the industry? A whopping 96 % of Americans will now live in states in which cannabis will be legal, at least partially. Though some of this access will be limited to medical use in some states, especially those in the West, it is reason for great celebration as adult use legalization can only be a few paces behind.
Americans who are expected to have access to adult-use cannabis by that same year is 64%, which will undoubtedly add notable pressure to the federal reform push.
Supposing all anticipated 18 states legalize the use of cannabis in the next 8 years, there will be an increase of $14.5 billion in legal retail sales.
In the year 2021, the number of medical cannabis patients from across the nation exceeded 4.4 million. As more people turn to natural remedies for their ailments and shun or supplement conventional medicine, the projection for growth, even without new markets, by the year 2030 is estimated at 5.7 million for registered medical cannabis patients. This will be close to 2% of the entire American population. It is anticipated that strong upticks will be seen in legal medicals states that border states with newly legalized adult-use.
The fact that cannabis and its products, both medicinal and adult-use, are increasingly easier to access plays a role in the growth of the industry. From online ordering to curbside pickups as well as other forms of delivery in states that are legal, you can have your package delivered at the click of a button. Cannabis tech companies who embraced eCommerce continue to see dramatic increments in their market share.
By January 2021, adult-use cannabis had been in only 12 states, which are: California, Washington, Alaska, Oregon, Maine, Colorado, Nevada, Massachusetts, Vermont, Michigan, Illinois, and Arizona (including the District of Columbia).
On the other hand, 34 states had legalized cannabis for medical use. These are: Hawaii, Montana, New Jersey, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana, Utah, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Missouri.
A greater number of Americans than ever before currently support the legalization of cannabis. According to a poll carried out by Gallup, a staggering 68%. Of Americans support legalization of cannabis with the demographic of 18 to 29-year-olds being at an all-time high of 79%. This is in direct contrast to a similar poll they carried out in 1969, in which only 12% of Americans held the same view.
As the cannabis industry matures, it also increases its number of hires. Older markets such as Portland, LA, Denver and Seattle have traditionally been hot-spots for cannabis-experienced professionals. However, new markets such Detroit, Boston, St. Louis, Chicago, Tulsa, Reno, Newark, Tucson and Philly as could be ripe fields for new job seekers.
In some states that have legalized adult-use of cannabis in addition to existing medical cannabis programs, key differences exist in market growth determined by:
- The Maturity of existing medical markets: Here, the more deeply entrenched the medical market is before adult-use legalization, the more likely that the greater use will be for medical purposes.
- Differences in marijuana taxation between medical and adult-use programs; Medical-use programs attract little to no taxation which is attractive to some users.
- The availability as well as accessibility of retail outlets. People will more likely gravitate to what they can access.
- The ease of entry of new participants into the medical market dictated by types and numbers of approved qualifying conditions, cost of card renewals, etc.
- Differences in the product type restrictions between the two markets.
- Home cultivation and caregiver laws.
If you are in one of the states that has not yet legalized either adult-use or medical use cannabis, you have cause to hold your breathe. The winds of change are blowing, and they are blowing hard. The next 8 years might see to it that you can access it, right at your doorstep.