US Rescheduling and German M&A Dominate Cannabis Europa

At Cannabis Europa 2026, which opened May 26, 2026, at London’s Barbican Centre, the April 23, 2026, Justice Department rescheduling order was less a topic of debate than a new baseline — the starting point for a harder conversation about what the US policy shift actually enables, and on what timeline.

The conference, now in its eighth year, brought together hundreds of operators, investors, policymakers, and patient advocates for two days of debate. Its opening day was defined by two intertwined stories: the practical mechanics of what the DOJ order means for transatlantic trade, and the accelerating consolidation cycle inside Germany’s medical cannabis market.

The two stories are connected. A US export market — even a modest early one — would reshape supply-side pricing and capital flows in Europe in ways operators are already building into their strategy. And Germany, the continent’s largest regulated medical cannabis market, is moving fast enough that the question of who holds scale when US product eventually arrives matters to anyone writing a deal structure today.

What the rescheduling order does — and where it stops

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche signed the order on April 23, 2026, placing both FDA-approved cannabis products and all products regulated under state-licensed medical markets into the federal lower schedule. The most immediately material business consequence for US operators: relief from the federal cannabis tax penalty that had blocked companies from deducting ordinary business expenses, pushing effective tax rates as high as 80 percent in some cases. For medical operators, that tax burden ends.

The import-export picture is more layered. Under the order, cross-border cannabis trade between the US and foreign markets is technically permitted — but execution depends on DEA registration, and the DEA’s registration portal has so far processed only dispensaries. Cultivators and manufacturers are still waiting. Jonathan Havens, co-founder of the cannabis practice at Saul Ewing LLP, told delegates that the framework for international trade now exists on paper, but practical export remains on hold until DEA extends registration to the full supply chain.

Germany adds a separate regulatory barrier. Adrian Fischer, co-CEO of DEMECAN, one of Germany’s first three licensed cultivators, told the conference that German regulations require a single central government agency to oversee medical cannabis imports — and currently bar sourcing from markets where medical and adult-use production coexist, which describes every US state. Fischer estimated three to six months before Germany issues a formal answer.

That bottleneck complicates the most-cited transatlantic play. Glass House Brands (GLAS ), the California greenhouse operator, publicly committed in January 2026 to converting Greenhouse 4 for international CBD and cannabis production, and investors cited the company at the conference as likely to begin European exports by Q3 2026. How far into the EU that product can move depends on answers Germany hasn’t yet provided.

German consolidation: profitability first, M&A behind it

Germany’s domestic capital market isn’t waiting for transatlantic clarity. Deutsche Bank’s (DB ) entry into cannabis financing — confirmed at the conference as open to further deals — carries a floor: the bank is focused on operators above €20 million in revenue and on backing established winners rather than accumulating market share. Working capital financing through mainstream banking channels is now accessible for profitable German operators, a structural shift that wasn’t in place before 2024.

The valuation picture has reset accordingly. Benedikt Sons, CEO of Cansativa, was direct: “It is now all about profitability; revenues are less important now.” Wholesale EBITDA multiples have compressed to around six times. Companies with genuine technology and recurring patient-platform revenue, though, are attracting health-tech multiples of ten to fifteen times — and the gap between the two is widening.

Deal structures reflect the same logic. Franziska Katterbach, a partner at Oppenhoff, described what buyers are paying for: “You’re really buying execution, not a sheet of paper.” Recent transactions have included earn-out components approaching fifty percent of deal value, placing the burden of proof on sellers to demonstrate the business will perform post-acquisition.

The consolidation map that emerged from day one points to four buyer categories: domestic German-to-German transactions, Canadian operators expanding their EU footprint, a second wave of US multi-state operators who need a German market footprint to sustain investor narratives, and big pharmaceutical, tobacco, and food-and-beverage companies already circling.

Aras Azadian, co-founder and CEO of Avicanna, framed the pharmaceutical entry in market terms: large Fortune 500 companies have shifted their tone toward cannabis in the past three months more than in the previous nine and a half years combined. The format driving that interest is standardized, reproducible medicine — not combustible flower. The shift from flower-dominant supply toward pharmaceutical-grade oils and sublingual formats, which reshaped Canada’s market after adult-use legalization, is in early stages across Europe.

UK medical cannabis import data released earlier this month already showed supply chains adjusting ahead of regulatory clarity. The first day at Cannabis Europa 2026 confirmed the same dynamic is playing out at the deal and capital level — in earn-out structures, bank relationships, and product development decisions being made now, well before the transatlantic market opens in full.